Abstracts – Browse Results
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Alnaggar, A M M M (2022) Digital transformation in asset management organisations: towards a data driven approach for life cycle asset management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Antonopoulou, S (1987) The building industry in Greece: its role in the post-war Greek economy, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Baik, A H (2017) Heritage Building Information Modelling (HBIM) as a model of UNESCO's World Heritage Nomination File, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Baltazar dos Santos, A P (2009) Cyberarchitecture: the virtualisation of architecture beyond representation towards interactivity, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Beech, N (2012) Constructing everyday life: an architectural history of the South Bank in production, 1948-1951, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Behar, C B (2016) A socio-technical perspective of ventilation practices in UK social housing with whole house ventilation systems: design, everyday life and change, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Bouwer, K A (2016) Building disappointment: the limits and potential of tort liability for energy efficiency problems in domestic buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Boyes, G (2021) Towards BIM/GIS interoperability: a theoretical framework and practical generation of spaces to support infrastructure Asset Management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Burman, E (2016) Assessing the operational performance of educational buildings against design expectations: a case study approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Fang, Z (2022) Machine learning integrated portfolio-based strategic building asset management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Few, J F M (2021) Ventilation in occupied homes: measurement, performance and sociotechnical perspectives, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Hesse, A D (1991) The management of risks in the procurement of very large construction projects (Britain and New Commonwealth): Comparative change in procurement methods for very large construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Howard, R W (2021) Of incentive, bias, and behaviour: an empirical economic investigation into project delivery constructs influencing the adoption of building information modelling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Husain, T (2023) Foreign investment and infrastructure financing: railways during the first age of globalisation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Kadir Pakir, A H (2003) Integration: A study in the context of low cost housing projects in Malaysia with special reference to the state of penang, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Kurul, E (2003) Re-using listed buildings through conversion: A process mapping approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Murray, A (2018) Returns on public capital investment: Procurement, whole life cost and value in English schools and hospitals, from 1997-2012, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Naghshbandi, S N (2022) Technology capabilities for safe and resilient coordination of automated earthwork systems: a decentralized multi-agent system approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Pocobelli, D P (2021) Heritage building information model (BIM) for scientific data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Presland, A J (2023) Picturing construction, constructing identities: the photographic archive of John Laing & Son Ltd, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Sanei, H (2016) Discipline breakdown structure: Bridging project management and systems engineering to form an integrated management system in multidisciplinary rail projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Sassano, G (2022) Optimism bias and cost overruns: experimenting on the internal and external views in resources and time estimation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: bias; optimism bias; reasoning; forecasting; infrastructure management; integration; estimator; case-based reasoning; cost overrun; infrastructure project; experiment
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10159728/
- Abstract:
Optimism bias affects most estimation based human decisions, from daily activities to the appraisal of big infrastructure projects. Building upon the underlying constructs of this behaviour through the lenses of support and prospect theories, operationalised in the internal and external view in the project management context, helped me to formulate a conceptual framework. This framework, called the Holistic view suggests ways to integrate the two perspectives with the aim to improve the quality of forecasts in infrastructure management. Integration can be achieved by including subjective probabilities and unpacking techniques into case-based reasoning methods. Based on this framework and on the analysis of the relevant policies, perspectives, definitions and techniques provided by the literature on optimism bias in project forecasting, I designed and administered four experiments, with a sample of 231 participants. The results of the first experiment show that there is a positive relationship between different levels of dispositional optimism and resource overruns. In the second experiment, I found that adding an optimism uplift to an estimate structurally increases forecast precision, however, this might lead to the use of more resources than when optimism uplift is not applied. In the third experiment, I found that unpacking, whilst making estimations slightly more precise, does not influence the estimations as in the previous case, but only the estimator. The results of the fourth experiment, combining unpacking with optimism uplift, indicated that forecast precision starkly increased, supporting the adoption of an Holistic view. This research shows the relevance of experimental methods in project management, unveils new relationships between different perspectives in the project forecasting field, and analyses, net of other factors, the impact of forecasting tools integrated in some of the policies addressing the effect of optimism bias in estimations, suggesting ways to improve those and the overall forecasting process of infrastructure projects.
Song, Y (2022) Resilience bonds and the financing of resilient infrastructure, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Sugiyantoro (2021) Homebuyers' strategies for progressive residential infrastructure improvement in Bandung, Indonesia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Symons, A W (2021) Integrated design, design management and the delivery of major hospitals, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Udomdech, P (2021) Project-based innovation learning mechanisms in the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Vinci, F (2022) Project-based networks in the delivery of infrastructure projects and programmes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).
Wang, Y (2022) Monitoring, modelling and analysis of occupants' operation of windows, use of air purifiers and smart air quality control in low-energy residential buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University College London (University of London).